#CBB added Utah ML, E. Carolina 1H -2.5, E. Carolina -5, Cal SB/Wash U over 152; not sold on Weber St/Cal yet #sportsbetting #gambling

Intl soccer bets: Chatearoux +.5, Sedan -1, Fortuna Dusseldorf -1, Bayern Munchen -2.5 #sportsbetting #soccer

#CBB bets tonight: GW/Bradley under 129.5, teased UC Irvine +19 & LSU under 141/ #sportsbetting #NCAAB wil add more later

$ES_F 6/15/11 S&P 500 emini game plan $SPX


ESU1: buy 1277.50, sell 1294.25
Max Expected range 1267.00-1293.50
Bollinger lower band: 1253.25

The SEPT SP is pulling back quite a bit, and is below yesterday’s opening range at 1276, but that is also a gap from yesterday’s 7:30am number. We seem to not be holding that area currently. The next area of support is 1268. The market continues to be weak and everyone is looking to sell any rallies. I am still leaning towards the idea that a swing low was put in Monday, and we are going to generate a mild oversold bounce in the coming weeks as fear is getting elevated. The SPX 200-day MA is around 1250 so that seems to be the area where everyone thinks we are headed. I would be selling some 1225 puts in July in anticipation of that event as we slide lower today. I also think we get a decent bounce before that area is indeed tested.

Trade: look for a day low within the first 30 minutes of trading…market should stabilize as buyers will likely defend 1268-1270 area on SEPT SP


$ES_F 6/14/11 S&P 500 emini game plan $SPX


ESU1: buy 1260.75, sell 1277.25
Max Expected range 1262.25-1281.75
Bollinger lower band: 1256.00

The SEPT SP is rallying this morning on news out of China that they raised their reserve rate to curb inflation. The market is up pretty decent, and given the fact we are pretty oversold, any rally could run a bit over the next few days. The first upside target is Friday’s high at 1283.50. After that resistance is at 1288.50-1290. I would imagine that dips will be bought today, and that if we get a chance to fill the 730am gap around 1276 that will be a good area to buy. From the fall from 1347.75 on the SEPT SP to the “bottom” yesterday ay 1259.50 it wouldn’t be uncommon for us to rally 38.2-50% back, or into the 1293-1303.50 area over the next couple of days. Crude oil has been weak lately but it is still rangebound $95-105. When we break out of this range either way the move should be big, since we have done little over the last few weeks.

Trade: buy dips, especially around 1276. Oversold bounce continues